Seece said:
yeah I'd say in the 240k - 290k range for Dec. |
Don't forget that November 2012 was the Wii U launch month - launch months typically have inflated sales numbers compared with future equivalent months. For instance, 3DS in March 2011 sold 351k in the US, and 220k in April. Then in 2012, it sold 198k in March and 144k in April. Ratio (March/April) in 2011 was about 1.6, while in 2012 it was about 1.38. For PSV, ratios for February/March for 2012 and 2013 were 1.33 and 1.02, respectively. For Xbox 360, ratios for November/December for 2005 and 2006 were 1.18 and 0.44, respectively.
Indeed, Xbox 360 demonstrates what might happen with Wii U this year - where the 2005 pattern saw roughly equal sales in November and December, the 2006 pattern saw December sales more than double those of November. Note that the 360 is the most comparable 7th gen system to the Wii U, as they launched a year before their competitors, saw rather weak sales through the first year, and then had the highest-rated game of the year (if memory serves me correctly) for the new generation released in November. And October to November sales increased quite dramatically - in Xbox 360's case, from 204k in October to 509k in November.
Another way to look at it is to look at the Wii U number in the first week of December this year - 75.5k. Even if the Wii U only managed this number each week to Christmas, they'd still be looking at 302k for December. And the first (full) week of December is typically the weakest week for sales prior to Christmas (excluding systems with November launches in their launch year). So 350k is, in my view, a lowball estimate, and 240-290k is a nonsense prediction.
My actual prediction is 450k-500k, depending on how well Nintendo advertises the system.
