-Steambox may win this gen- Ep.2 VGC Trends

[famousringo]

Good thread, bold predictions, but I find that I can't agree with everything you say.

1. Don't underestimate the challenge posed by creating a viable mobile platform. Mobile devices are Microsoft's only move in mobile gaming right now, and even they're struggling so much to secure third place in the market that the biggest monopolist in tech is releasing software on rival platforms. Sony's attempts to harmonize gaming devices with smartphones have also fizzled, and Nintendo has been wise enough to know that mobile computing is not its forte.

2. I'm not sure this is true. Take 2 just ported its fourth GTA title to mobile, and seemed rather pleased with the performance of XCOM. Is it driving more sales of the latest console releases at $60? Perhaps not. But mobile does seem to be a viable way to extend the revenues of content previously released on other platforms.

3. Seems like all the major console manufacturers are trying to do this. Not clear yet on how successful they will be.

4. I'm inclined to agree. The strategy of major publishers has been to push production quality as a means of competition, trying to spend their rivals into the grave. But production quality doesn't translate into content quality, and the need to release on many platforms to pay for these production values leads to a lowest common denominator that neglects the advantages of different platforms. Diversity suffers and publishers starve to death one by one.

5. Not sure why Sega is singled out here. All the big third parties have a mobile strategy, but the one that seems to be most effective right now in terms of sheer revenue generation is EA. Of course, they got there through some huge acquisitions, so it's hard to know how well its really paying off for them.

As for Valve, I'll admit the Steambox has potential, but it's far from a sure bet. I view it as more of a defensive play: The only way for Valve to break out of the collapsing PC market.

Steam OS's two main challenges are up front cost and publisher support. Up front cost is a problem because none of the OEMs making Steamboxes are going to be able to compete with console manufacturers for scale, and none of them can count on back end revenues to subsidize the up front costs like console manufacturers do.

The content issue is even more serious. Despite having access to 90% of the same content as Xbox and Playstation, plus exclusive PC stuff, Valve needs to convince all those publishers to provide support for controllers and Linux drivers. They can count on the indies who rely on Steam to do that, but how willing is Bethesda going to be to make Elder Scrolls VI fully Steam Box compliant so they can earn $10 of revenue on a Steam sale to the few people willing to drop $600 on a Steam Box instead of $30-60 on a retail purchase for PS4?