the_dengle said:
JGarret said:
About Pachter and his estimates for the Wii U:
November 2012:
450K prediction -> 425K reality
25K over-predicted (-5.55%)
December 2012:
675K prediction -> 463K reality
212K over-predicted (-31.41%)
January 2013:
125K prediction -> 57K reality
68K over-predicted (-54.40%)
February 2013:
80K prediction -> 66K reality
14K over-predicted (-17.50%)
March 2013:
55K prediction -> 68K reality
13K under-predicted (23.63%)
April 2013:
55K prediction -> 37K reality
18K over-predicted (-32.72%)
May 2013:
32K prediction -> 33K reality
1K under-predicted (3.13%)
June 2013:
38K prediction -> 42K reality
4K under-predicted (10.53%)
July 2013:
30K prediction -> 29K reality
1K over-predicted (-3.33%)
August 2013:
30K prediction -> 31K reality
1K under-predicted (3.33%)
September 2013:
55K prediction -> 95K reality
40K under-predicted (72.72%)
October 2013:
75K prediction -> 50K reality
25K over-predicted (-33.33%)
November 2013:
150K prediction - ? reality
The Gamecube´s worst November, before the Wii launched, was a year before, in 2005, when it sold 272K...at that point, the system was practically on its deathbed, with no significant releases.
It´s bad enough the Wii U has been performing worse than the GC, when one compares both systems´first year, but it´ll be astonishingly bad if the Wii U has actually sold worse than the GC in November 2005, considering it´s one of the busiest shopping seasons, Mario 3D World, etc..
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Since you have seen fit to repost this from the other thread, I too will repost my response from the same thread.
VGChartz Estimates for Wii U in Comparison to NPD:
November 2012:
412K prediction -> 425K reality
13K under-predicted
December 2012:
665K prediction -> 463K reality
202K over-predicted
January 2013:
79K prediction -> 57K reality
22K over-predicted
February 2013:
38K prediction -> 66K reality
28K under-predicted
March 2013:
85K prediction -> 68K reality
17K over-predicted
April 2013:
46K prediction -> 37K reality
9K over-predicted
May 2013:
37K prediction -> 33K reality
4K over-predicted
June 2013:
44K prediction -> 42K reality
2K over-predicted
July 2013:
36K prediction -> 29K reality
7K over-predicted
August 2013:
49K prediction -> 31K reality
18K over-predicted
September 2013:
101K prediction -> 95K reality
6K over-predicted
October 2013:
86K prediction -> 50K reality
36K over-predicted
VGChartz has estimated a total of 1.68 million through October vs Pachter's 1.7 million. VGChartz is more accurate than Pachter.
At the very least, on average Pachter is no more accurate -- and has been no more "generous" to the Wii U -- than VGChartz.
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Yes, you´re right, VGChartz has been more accurate, which, I think, is pretty damn scary for the Wii U either way, since regardless of you go with Pachter or VGChartz, the system might have sold worse than the worst November the Gamecube saw (November 2005 - 272K units), in one of the most important months of the year for sales, with Mario 3D World as the flagship title.Granted we might only see the full effect when NPD December is released, since the game will have been released for more than a whole month, but it´ll still be pretty damn terrible.
We can only hope that, just this time, both him and VGChartz are off by a huge amount, but what are the odds of that?
