The Vita "should" get to 10 million first but theres 2 wild cards that may determine which gets there first.
1. being how Wii U performs throughout the holidays. Nintendo consoles are known to go into beast mode during the holidays (just look at 3DS) so if it has a strong holiday it could cut the gap down by alot.
2. If/When the Vita's new model and VitaTV get's released in the west. I doubt either will be at 10 by March so if the Vita 2000 and VitaTV is released in US/EU by then, then the Vita should get there first.
oops i mean, why are we comparing handhelds to consoles? there completely different because blah blah blah herp derp.
PSN: extremeM
PlayStation Vita Japanese Software Sales (Media Create Physical/ Famitsu Digital)