freedquaker said:
* Most of those increases do not happen due to "Windows" but rather "Nokia". People are simply going for a better alternative than Android if they cannot afford (an unsubsidized) Iphone or simply prefer Nokia. => This is a well known fact. Especially in Europe, where Nokia has always been popular, and this is where we see the surge in Nokia (winphone, ahem) sales. I have not seen one single person who bought a Nokia because of Windows Phone in my trips to Europe. Of course, there are, but absolutely a minority. Most people I know didn't even know the existence of a Windows Phone OS, but bought the phone simply they couldn't afford an iphone, or didn't want to get an Android. * Nokia is still FAR from recouping its lost market share, and those gains are small in comparison. => This is not even up for debate, but obvious. * A good deal of those gains are about collecting the leftovers after the dismal ends of Blackberry and the former Nokia. => Also obvious, because Android is increasing its market share at 80% and Iphones are still selling more though with a lower share because of rapidly expanding market. But yes, only in Europe, iphone lost some ground to NOKIA due to Lumias, and the highly expensive Iphones. * Android, the biggest competition, is still gaining ground, with shares up to 80% globally, also increasing pretty much everywhere. => Nothing to debate about, simple fact. * There is not much room left to grow other than gaining ground at the cost of Apple & Google, which will get harder and harder. => Also true, because Android is getting even stronger, and Apple seems untouchable by MS in 3 largest markets US, China, Japan. * Windows Phone is a distant third in the largest and most significant markets. 4.8% in US, virtually non-existing in China and Japan. => Fact. * MS wants to be a global player by selling its OS to everyone, but so far, 3/4 of its sales come from Nokia, which MS owns! This defeats the purpose, as its hardly profitable from MS point of view. => MS always sold its OS to everyone who wants, and still does it. There is not one single category that MS doesn't sell or want to sell its OS. They did it with Windows RT, and still do it with Win Phone. Claiming otherwise is all about being completely blind to Microsoft History and Policies. They bought Nokia, because they wanted to create "enough momentum" for the emergence of a strong ecosystem and market share, which will then trigger other manufacturers to show bigger interest in Windows Phone.
MS is fundamentally wrong on their policy. Because noone will wholeheartedly ever pick the windows Phone OS. Not because it is a bad OS, but because of a variety of other reasons. MS charges for it, to begin with. Windows is the only non-free OS on Earth in the consumer space, which adds up to the cost. Without the well established ecosystem and customer base, as well as more appealing feature-set, it is obliged to trail way behind the android. And the reason it may catch up to Apple is because Apple may let it, just to preserve high profit margins. |
I don't disagree with your entire post but have counter arguments to some of your points.
- Most of increases come from the fact that Microsoft finally has a variety of devices at different price levels and distribution to sell them to consumers, largely but not solely thanks to Nokia. I wouldn't discredit Windows ecosystem and give all the credit to Nokia here. There are design and ecosystem similarities between Windows desktop, tablet and phone (Xbox too) which may contribute to marketshare increases.
- Nokia marketshare in the past is completely irrelevant as the company couldn't sustain itself in the changing smartphone market. They spent 10 billion dollars in R&D in 2010 to sell 20 million smartphones per quarter. They will be selling 10 million smartphones and even more per quarter very soon and have spend 2.5 billion in R&D in 2013. Their feature phone sales took a massive hit which is why the company was having issues for the last few quarters.
- MS will gladly sell their OS to anyone that still wants to license it but they are fully aware they cannot compete with this business model in the mobile sector. Instead at this point it looks like they believe that by having full control of an OEM, they are able to quadruple the profit and revenue while not give up complete control of their mobile ecosystem and user experience. Only time will tell if they are right, but looking at the WP market uptrend, it looks like they are on the right track.
