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I think there might be truth to this rumor.  My local FM store put the 20gb HD on clearance back in January.  They no longer stock the 20gb HD.

I think they want to make sure 360 HD "gigabyte" is higher than the PS3 for similar model.

I doubt about the 20gb for Arcade though, it would be nice but I think MS still believe in their sku model.  My feeling is the Arcade will be used to achieve that 199.99 price point this year.