In my opinion, going exclusive or going multi is not the problem here, the problem is that development costs were high on the consoles, especially on the PS3, the Cell was more complicated than the PS2 Emotion Engine, same with the RSX, not to mention the change from SD to HD, and the PS3 sales were not as good as the PS2s, so devs tried other alternatives, like making multi games or exclusive deals with Microsoft.
Now, the PS4 is closer to a PC than ever with the AMD Jaguar, so devs should get a break in development costs, now it's up to the base. The first year of sales is important for the devs to figure it out, if the PS4 beats the Xbox One in Europe and recovers the lost territory in the US, J-devs will be more than happy to make more exclusive games for the PS4.
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