eFKac said:
Size of the install base doesn't mean everything. First off, people are overestimating the number of active PS3s in the wild. How many died, were replacements, cheap Blu Ray players/multimedia centers, are second or third or more if you're crazy in the household. We don't know, I can say for sure though that there is not a install base of 78 million to buy GT6. With PS4 we can be pretty sure that at least within the first year of launch, the active install base is close to what was sold LTD and consists in majority by fans and hardcore gamers starving to new games and experiences. Then goes the matter of generational fatigue. It's been 7/8 years already, PS3 is obsolete by now, 2013 had some really amazing games, but we have pretty much seen all that this gen is capable of by 2011. You'd think that because we have "160 million" install base at the moment there shouldn't be any flops this year right? Well when you're not GTA 5 or TLoU to set peoples imagination on fire, it's hard to find spectacular success this year on PS360. I could post a long list of flops and games that underperformed this year but I'm sure you're aware of them. Now we have the case of change and improvement. I haven't played any newer build than the GT6 Academy and though I sure it improved a bit I'm not expecting a revolution since, and even though the game is certainly a good improvement over GT5, partially because it had it's fair share of flaws, it feels more like GT5,5, a game that GT5 should have been from the start. Even though I will probably get it day 1, I wouldn't blame any GT5 owner not grabbing it soon if they don't feel it's worth upgrading for 60$. 10 times the performance of PS4 I'm sure could impress much more, and give us a big jump, undoubtably worth the asking price. And lastly GT6 on PS4 would certainly help improve the consoles adoption rate, here I think we agree. And we have Kazunori, which is pretty surprising to me I won't lie, so openly talking about Gran Turismo on PS4, even as soon as 2014. If you want people to buy GT6 on PS3, at least keep in secret that a superior version of the franchise is release in one year time possibly cause that's just fucking moronic :-/ |
I'm not saying it will sell more then GT5, but I think 5 million will easily be passed. The ps3 is still selling well, there might not be 78 million active ps3's out there, there are 10 million GT5 copies in the wild. It will sell a lot more then a severely limited ps4 version will sell. Knowing PD they would have never made the launch date anyway, GT6 on ps3 didn't even make it before the ps4 launch date and they have gone on record admitting that certain features are likely not to make it for GT6' release. GT6 at ps4 launch was simply not an option for Sony.
I think a lot of GT5 owners are hungry for a new version, I see the game daily in my friend's list with comments about GT6 arriving Dec 6. Word of mouth is going to give GT6 strong legs. I doubt they can get a full game ready for ps4 by 2014, a prologue maybe, if not just a GT academy demo. But yes, not smart insunuating it could be on ps4 next year.
In a perfect world GT6 would be a launch ps4 title with 40 tracks and 500 premium cars. Too bad reality doesn't work that way. The adoption rate for ps4 is already 100%, sold out for months to come if current demand is to be believed. It doesn't need GT6 at launch. And all those people buying GT6 will still get the ps4 version later. It makes more sense financially.
