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That's really the only outcome I can see happening. MS couldn't beat a severely weakened Sony launch. A year late (year and a half in EU) and $200 more. I just don't see them winning against a Sony that is firing on all cylinders AND launching for $100 cheaper.

And while some like to downplay the launch sales by saying they don't always determine the winner, you really can't effectively downplay the largest console launch in NA history. And I expect the PS4 to break records when it launches in EU, as well. Maybe even Japan, a place where the Xbox One is going to be lucky hitting above 1M in lifetime sales, while the PS4 should do at least 10M.