Current vs Last, a Console Sales Story (COMPLETE!)

[Osc89]

RolStoppable said:

Osc89 said:

I'm not overly positive about what they'll come up with, I was just pointing out that they are working on their own versions of the Wii strategy. You said that Sony and MS wouldn't try anything radical to avoid alienating third parties, but they are using their peripherals to try something less conventional. And given Nintendo thought the Wii U GamePad was the next step, it's not easy to be that positive about what they'll come up with next.

I wasn't saying third party is the right thing to do, just that compared to having their software constrained by consoles that sell under 20m I can understand the frustration in the money Nintendo is leaving on the table. My point was if they do this again with the next console, it could impact their software. It would be an entire decade where Nintendo franchises get very little exposure. Hopefully the handhelds would prevent them from losing their value, but it is easy to see why you wouldn't neccessarily want to tie the fate of the software to the hardware.

Microsoft will use Kinect first and foremost for non-gaming, because Kinect is extremely limited in what types of games it can do. Their console isn't built around a different control input for games. Sony doesn't even bundle their camera with the hardware, so it's going to see even less software support than Kinect. Their strategies to create new gamers are even worse than the Wii U Gamepad. One year after the GC had released it wasn't easy to be positive about Nintendo either; things got even worse when they presented their Connectivity idea. The reset that happens with every console cycle allows a company to have a completely fresh start. Obviously, it can also go into the negative direction as the difference between the Wii and Wii U shows, but it creates a unique market dynamic that allows a complete loser to come back in full force.

You are right that the hardware can pose a huge hurdle, especially if it's not executed well. That's the main reason why the big third party publishers are still third parties. If selling hardware was easy, everyone would do it in order to not have to pay any royalties to another company. Given how big of a failure the Wii U is, Nintendo should be thinking hard about why they failed and why they succeeded in the past. If they draw the right conclusions, then their next console shouldn't be a failure. As an integrated hardware/software company, Nintendo has the flexibility to execute different strategies, especially because their IPs are strong enough to get a system going on their own.

I was more talking about the glasses than the cameras, but even the cameras are at least trying to do something that isn't being done by something you already own. The GamePad however is trying to give a tablet experience or something? I don't really know what they are trying to do with the GamePad. But I agree that the Wii U failure is an opportunity in some ways, as they won't feel obligated to carry anything across from the previous generation so are pretty free to try something more radical.

I don't think it's just a matter of looking at where they went wrong, they also need to have a good enough idea. Maybe the reason the Wii U exists is that they understood that Nintendo Land + GamePad wasn't a strong enough concept, but they didn't have anything else so they hoped to draw in third parties. Also I don't really have the highest hopes for the next console being a hit, as the timing is terrible. They are going to have to release their next console right in the middle of the PS4 & XB1 lifecycle when they'll be cheaper and have a decent library of games. The Wii released next to the PS3 which had a price and games problem that made the Wii an obvious choice. Whatever Nintendo come up with it won't be as clear cut this time.