Current vs Last, a Console Sales Story (COMPLETE!)

[Osc89]

RolStoppable said:

Osc89 said:

I think Nintendo being part of the next-gen discussion still would have helped, and would have done closer to 360 first year numbers just for being first out. Instead it completely stalled with everyone waiting for the next-gen to start. The 360 benefited from people who weren't loyal to any particular brand, and negativity elsewhere with things like the PS3s price. Nintendo could have done the same in the gap between XB1 reveal and E3, would have got all the good publicity the PS4 got instead, and even could have pushed the PS4 in the same "anti-consumer" box as the XB1 by talking about the loss of free online. They can't do any of this while people view them as last-gen though.

And there has to be some reason they don't want Nintendo around. If this reason is anything other than they don't want Nintendo first parties around (which would be more of an issue if they went third party no?) then there must be something they can do on their end to fix it. If it isn't the hardware (which they normally say it is) then maybe their policies or poor third party relations teams? What is it that Sony and MS can do, and they can't?

If you are right however, and third parties will not touch a Nintendo console for absolutely no reason, then there is no point in going for hardware parity. This is a hard scenario to swallow, as a business will generally act in their best interest.

Doing 360 numbers in its first year would have still been failure territory and not enough to make third parties consider the platform in the future. The GameCube was easy and cheap to port to, so really, your proposed backup plan cannot work.

As for the possible reason why third parties don't want Nintendo around: Nintendo is not dependent on third parties like Sony and Microsoft, so third parties would be merely partners instead of being in the driver's seat. Nintendo games also raise consumer expectation for the quality of software as most Nintendo software doesn't have an expiration date; hence why Nintendo can maintain higher software prices and still sell more copies than pretty much everyone else in the long run. In order for Nintendo to come closer to what Sony and Microsoft provide, Nintendo would have to pay off third parties left, right and center which wouldn't be healthy business for a company that cannot subsidize its gaming operations through other venues. This entitlement to get paid off is something third parties obviously won't admit publicly as any moneyhats are usually covered up by fishy PR statements.

That leaves the question how it would be good for third parties to force Nintendo to become a third party. The simple assumption that Nintendo wouldn't be the same as a third party, just like the crippled Sega we've seen in the last decade, should make third parties feel comfortable.

What it comes down to is a fight for power, the leadership in the industry. Third parties want to have it and Nintendo is an obstacle, because they aren't enablers like Sony and Microsoft. Sega used to be an obstacle too, that's why Electronic Arts wanted them out ultimately. Sega didn't give in to the demands ("stop making first party sports games"), so EA did withhold all support for the Dreamcast. With the Wii U it's also pretty clear that Nintendo didn't give in to EA's demands which explains why EA decided to not even bother trying to get Frostbite 3 run on the Wii U.

How can Nintendo survive then? If third parties want them out they won't ever have good support like the others. And Sony and MS are so similar in what they offer in terms of hardware they will focus on exclusive software to try and stand out. So Nintendo will have a very hard time standing out in the software space, especially as they will devote less time to new IPs as they have to maintain their successful old ones.

But coming up with something special in terms of hardware is even harder. Could they really come up with another Wii again? Especially as many more companies are trying to get a box in the living room. On top of Sony and MS, it looks like Valve, Apple, Google (+ other Android boxes) are all going for this area. Will they all have ignored what the Wii did? Many of them will be looking to pick up the ball Nintendo dropped, and if Nintendo didn't even realise what they did with the Wii why would it be them.