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mibuokami said:

http://www.vg247.com/2013/10/25/xbox-one-and-ps4-shipments-in-q4-2013-expected-to-hit-2-5-to-3-million-each/

Now I am not saying analyst are always correct but given we are talking about shipment figures rather than sales projection, I feel like they should be at least in the right ballpark.

1.5 - 2 million for  Q4 2013 seems like a reasonable (conservative) estimate for each respective console. I think you're seriously under estimating how important NA is to MS and the XBox brand. There is no way MS would ship a meagre 400k unit to the US only. Even as an ultra conservative estimate, I can't see them dropping below 600k initial shipment, and frankly I expect more in both shipment and demand given that Sony would have sold more than 2 million consoles on launch day if there was enough supply.

That was not my point at all... if MS have 1 million manufacture consoles I'm sure they will put at least 700k in US retail.

The issue is that... MS started the production late... in August they are making changes in the hardwatre yet... so they have in the best case two months of mass production and they have a big and complex APU to produce.

They delayed the console in some countries because they are late in production.

I can't see MS shipping more than 600k units but I will be happy if I'm wrong