Xbox One is going to win this gen!

[freedquaker]

Whether or not it will win depends on what you mean it to me.

For all intents and purposes, XBone has no chance whatsoever outside of North America and UK. In those 3 countries, (US, Canada, UK), the chances that Xbone will win decreases by their proximity to Europe.

So the country that it's most likely to win is US (which does NOT mean that this probability >50%).

In US
- Will it be competitive? YES
- Will it sell reasonably, maybe respectively? YES
- Will it have the same market as the 360 generation? NO
- Will it have more than 50% market share? UNLIKELY
- Will it be dominated by PS4 (Market share
This puts its market between 25% to 50% in US, mostly because
a) Negative publicity (Repel many)
b) High Price (Highly deterrent)
c) Underpowered hardware (Repel some)
among others...

But it may still not be dominated by PS4 because
a) Multimedia and TV features (appeal to some)
b) Kinect etc (appeal to some)
c) Windows Integration (appeal to some)
among others...

In Short,

X360
=> came earlier than PS3 and built momentum,
=> was always cheaper,
=> benefited initial developer friendly tools and programming
=> enjoyed high wave first party exclusives, better initial third party software
=> reaped network effects

Xbone
=> comes around the same time,
=> is more expensive,
=> is suffering from the lack of developer friendly tools and programming
=> enjoying some wave first party exclusives, but WORSE initial third party software
=> cannot reap network effects
=> but enjoys a brand recognition