The rising cost of videogames, how two companies did something about it

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Gamerace said:

Oyvoyvoyv said:

What I believe is WCS for Ps3, is if this happens:

1. Third parties lose too much money, almost all of them go to Wii and start developing.
2. Microsoft shuts down X360, because it is losing to much money. They have vulnerated this before.
3. Ps3 now has a much smaller userbase, and is higher priced to develop for, in reality, it is doomed.

About the 1 console, that won't happen. Microsoft has put heaps of money into their gaming division, I doubt they will leave totally that fast.
Sony has a superb brandname with the Playstation. There's no way they will leave.

The only reason I see those two leaving, is if 2-3 other companies also join in and make consoles.

Therefore, the only "realistic" solution, is that Nintendo goes bankrupt. They can't afford to lose money, so if they start losing money, they have to go out.

 

This is why I predict a forth (and possibly fifth) major player will join the market.  MS & Sony have left themselves vunerable and Wii has cracked the mass market nut. 

If say Apple for example puts out what is basically a Wii HD and markets it as the cool thing (successfully) with graphics close to 360s (but not necessarily as good) developers will happily port all their Wii games over and all their HD games over (with a few exceptions) to this new system.  Gamers finally get the best of both worlds.  Image CoD4 on a Wii-esque system. What could be better?  If such system is successful, and could be just on Wii crumbs (as Nintendo still can't supply adequately), then MS & Sony would either: A) not be able to respond and lose marketshare, and be seen as 'old' tech despite slight graphic superiority, and lose money C) Cut prices drastically to remain competitive in this new order and lose money B) Be forced to launch a 'next' gen system far earlier than they'd like and lose billions on this generation (and even previous for MS) D) Give up

 

Yeah, people think Nintendo is the company that will be in danger if Apple/someone else launches a system, but in reality, the Wii is so far going it will only lose 10% ish (assuming it otherwise would have sold 100ish), while X360 and Ps3 would a much bigger %.  

In that graph, are the green lines predictions?

Anyway, according to that graph, the average pr game is 40M, right?Let's say the average price for games is 40 dollars. And that the makers get 50% of total money coming in (10% advertise 10% to Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft, 10% to retailer, 20% something I don't remember.)

So 50%. That means they get roughly 20 dollars pr copy sold. Doesn't this mean that the average for games will have to be 2M? Remember that the average is raised a lot due to SMG, Brawl, Halo and so.

But this then also means that a niche title (like Zack and Wiki), which only needs to sell 300K to go even, costs less than 1/6 of the average. I don't know the situation for X360/Ps3, but Twilight Princess needed 1.4M to go even, if I am not wrong. That means the average cost is higher than what Nintendo used to make an 80 (less for some, more for some, I used 100 hours on first playthrough, but say 60 if you want) hours long game, which also won several game of the year awards.

So as far I can see, the average for Wii can't be higher than 750K, so let's say 1M for them. Now, half of the games made are on Wii, so therefore half are on Ps3+X360, right? The average shall be 2M, so 3+1 / 2 = 2.

So unless I have done many things wrong, which I probably have, the average needed sales for Xbox360/Ps3 is 3M. And, for multiplats, it is then 3.3M, due to 10% extra porting.

So by making for Wii, your game needs to sell 1/3 of X360/Ps3, if not less!

Please note: From here and out there are only speculations. These are not facts.

If Apple/someone else launches on that you need 2M sales for, and that is "cool", most 3rd parties will jump to them, and leave MS/Sony, making the competition between Apple (or someone else) and Nintendo this:

Console X: The high-profile 3rd party games, very few niche 3rd party.
Vs
Console W(ii): First party, niche 3rd party, and some high-profile 3rd party.