Poll: Can the PS3 hit 100 million lifetime?

[Lawlight]

Mummelmann said:

Lawlight said:

Mummelmann said:

Lawlight said:
Of course. It has less than 20M to go to pass the 100M mark. Only simple-minded people can't see it.

You sure about that? It appears on track to sell somewhere around 8 million this year, it's bound to drop a lot next year due to the shift in focus onto the 8th gen. It would need 3-4 more good years on the market to reach 100 million lifetime. Or an incredibly long life, PS2 level long at that.

It just doesn't seem likely at this point. It remains to be seen how much thunder the PS4/One steals, it the PS3 drops below 5 million or so for 2014 CY, there's just no way, in my opinion.

Edit; mid 90's numbers, next year, I expect a severe drop, perhaps half of 2013 numbers, that would be around 4 million and approx lifetime sales of 86-87 million, further drop in 2015, down to 2-3 million, bumping it into 90-ish. The PS3 won't remain strong, or even relevant, for anywhere near as long as the PS2, this is such a vastly different situation to the end of the 6th gen where the PS2 had record marketshare, sole support and no competition to speak of.

It sold around 6M from January to September. And you're saying that it will only 2M from October to December? So, the same number of PS3s from October to December as they did from July to September?

In light of the above evidence, do you want to revise your statement?

Plus, what makes you say that the PS3 won't remain strong for more than the next 2 years?

I'm getting 4.5 million from january till now, which numbers are you looking at to find that extra 1.5 million? I just realised, if anything, I should adjust that 8 million downwards, in order to hit that, the PS3 needs to sell about 500k per week starting last week.

Why would the PS3 remain strong? Will Sony be backing both the PS4 and PS3 fully? Will 3rd parties linger another two years? We saw how fast the Wii tapered off and that's even without a successor that steals any kind of thunder right now, with the PS4 getting all the press and attention, the PS3 won't be relevant much longer. The whole 10 year plan was bogus to begin with, PR talk, Sony aren't dumb enough to try to keep the PS3 on life support for several years out of principal or spite, they need to go in hard for the 8th gen to reclaim the lost ground and gain sure footing for the future, not to mention build up an 8th gen installed base to move highly profitable software on.

This is not the end of the 6th gen, the PS2 managed to sell about 50% more after the release of the PS3, this was under the outmost optimal conditions a console has ever had and with an heir that moved very slowly at the start, it came off of a monopoly and had historical support. The other contenders from the 6th gen had thrown in their towel a long time ago and never posed a threat to begin with. The PS3 only recently achieved 2nd place in the 7th gen race and has had fierce competition from the 360 from the start, not to mention being outsold by the Wii. Sony has lost massive chunks of the market, both handheld and home consoles have taken a massive hit and the PS4 will likely sell a lot more than the PS3 in its first months on the market, if not for any other reason than being in abundant supply and not having a staggered launch.

To expect the PS3 to sell 25% more than it currently sits at before it goes away seems extremely unlikely given the circumstances, Sony are not the superpower they once were on the market and the PS3 is not the PS2, however much some people would like it to be.

No, I stand by my statement; the PS3 will hit the mid 90's, the upper limit being 97 million or so. I still haven't seen you make any argument as to why it will be strong and manage another 20 million + sales before all is said and done. I think it's your turn to tell me why you think what you think.

PS: It won't do just calling me simple-minded.

A combination of vgchartz and Sony numbers. 3.1M PS3 were sold from April to September. 3.4M PS3s + PS2s sold from January to March. The PS2 couldn't have sold many because it was discontinued in that period so let be optimistic and say 0.5M PS2s from January to March. That leaves 6M PS3s from January to September for the PS3.

Now, where did you get the 4.5M? Even vgchartz has it at more than 6M for the year.

Sony didn't back the PS1 or PS2 fully and yet they sold 50% more after their successor launched. Yes, 3rd parties will linger for a while yet - just look at the releases for the PS3 after the PS4 launch. On top of that, they have room to drop the price.

Please provide a breakdown of how much you think the PS3 will sell for the next few years.