Any Gran Turismo title on the PS4 will almost certainly hit 10 million or more. Unless in the off chance that Gran Turismo 6 completely sucks and affects sales of future entries.
Considering that Call of Duty looks like it may finally be declining this could be where Killzone steps up. If Shadow Fall is awesome at a time when the most recent Call of Duty offering stumbled badly we may see a lot of PS4 CoD enthusiasts jump ship. However, I don't think it will be Shadow Fall that pulls it off. Assuming that it does very well, I think it's more likely that a future Killzone title would accomplish that milestone.
A future game by Naughty Dog has a strong chance of reaching 10 million sales. Based on sales of pretty much every franchise they've made, Naughty Dog is the most likely studio besides Polyphony Digital to create a title that people go crazy over.
I will also say that if Santa Monica Studio is indeed creating an open-world sci-fi game, that could quite possibly also make a good run at the 10 million mark. Open-world games are the big deal these days and I've noticed a growing interest among gamers for something science fiction-like. Put it in the hands of the studio that made God of War with Stig Asmussen as the director and you've got some serious potential there.
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