BLINDSIDED: Why the XBONE will win next gen.

[irstupid]

Mensrea said:

irstupid said:

Mensrea said:
Simple economics states that if two products do approximately the same thing, and the price of one is cheaper, the cheaper one will almost always win.

PS4 is going to have all the same multiplats,
They will look the same/marginally better
They will play on a controller that is roughly the same.

A wild card in this case is exclusives. Individual preference will bring over a few diehards to each side, but that is essentially a wash.

Kinect is a differentiating factor, but it probably alienates as many gamers as it brings in families, so I call that a non-factor.

What's left? Two online services that will be roughly the same, both featuring a subscription fee.

I fail to see any reason why Xbox One could win at this point besides lowering price to match PS4.

I would say that Kinect could be the biggest factor.

People on this site tend to forget that we are the minority.

All it takes is one media push talking about how great the Kinect is for say a dancing game or exercise game and you have millions of PARENTS jumping out to buy one.  Just look at Wii Fit, or when Wii first came out.  And these people wont' care about $500 price tag.  They drop $1,000 or more on exercise equipment they use for a week every couple years.

Then the xbox is in the house.  Any kids present in the house would then use that system versus spending $400+ on a PS4.  And as is usually the case with multiplats, Resolution, Bonus, ect mean jack shit.  It's all about what system your friends are playing on.  If all your friends have a Xbox One, you will get one.  Doesn't matter how many more polygons the ps4 has or if it dips less fps or whatever.  You will get a One for playing with your friends.  

Everyone single one of my friends owns a 360.  Maybe half own a PS3, and they didn't own one till later in gen, and most of them bought it for the blu ray, and not for games.  They still buy 360 games, cause their friends all play online for that system.  360 got them all cause their friends had it, not because it was "better" or anything like that.    Same reason everyone hats things like uplay or origin.  Sure you can bitch all you want about what is bad about htem, but the main reason is because they aren't steam.  You have all your friends on steam and games on steam, its annoying as hell to have to have another service.

Gamers are actually not in the minority as much as you would like to believe. 160 million people bought PS3's and Xbox 360's, I doubt many of them were buying those systems for kinect or move.

Your second point is VERY flawed. First of all, Kinect is not some new thing, it's been around for a while. They have made their media push, a second one for a slightly improved product is not going to do much. Secondly, the price IS  going to be a huge factor. Wii Fit worked because even with the balance board, it was still pretty cheap. It also banked on the already amazing sucess of the Wii. Which by the way was only 250 when it launched. 

Your telling me that a 500 dollar wii would have done anywhere near the numbers the wii did in the beggining? You are absolutely crazy. Wii =/= Xbone. 

I never mentioned anything about the graphical capabilities of either system. That is just for the fans to jerk off about. I agree that specs don't matter much. Sure will a more powerful PS4 sway a few buyers, sure, but overall that's not what really matters. What matter's is price. PS4 is more powerful, AND 100 dollars cheaper? (If you could buy margerine or butter and the butter was cheaper, which would you buy?) PRICE MATTERS.

 

Service switching is the only half coherant thing you mentioned in your argument. I agree, some people will definitely stay on what they know out of convienience, but not all. Also, your microcasm of friends does not represent the entire industry as a whole. There are more PS3's out there than there are 360's. So if everyone just stuck with the same thing out of convienience, PS4 would still win.......

When i say minority I mean people on gaming sites, those who look at reviews, ect.

Out of the 160 million gamers or whatever number it is.  multi console owners, multi same console owners, ect reduce that number.

But whatever the true 160 million is, I would say at best only 5% of that number consists of all people at IGN, Joystic, VGcharts, ect combined.    That's what I mean when I say minority.

Wii Fit you have $100 + $250 for the Wii.  Parents ate it up.  But I was comparing the price of Kinect/One to the price of say an eliptical, or a bowflex, or year gym membership.

Peopl splurge on shit like that all the time and end up using it for a copule weeks or the gym only till February.  I would not be surprised if my parents buy an Xbox One because they see the people on Today show or something showing off some new great exercise game.  They use it for a couple weeks then it will collect dust.  Maybe my dad would still use the kinect to play around with TV, but none of them would game.  Then if I still lived with my parents I would have a FREE Xbox to buy games for instead of having to pay $400 for a PS3.  Free is cheaper than $400.

Oh and i bet my parents don't remember what a Kinect is.  If Microsoft has some good commercial or as I said something on Today show or good morning america or whatever they will think its something new.  Kinect may get a jump due to what we would call a "fad" but a jump is all it may take for something to win.  The first one to solidly get the consumer base will win.  Look how much xbox still owns in U.S.  and did its whole life.  

There is some number that whatever console reaches it first will win in that territory.  Whether its 5 million or 10 million.  or if its maybe a certain threshold lead whether 1 million or 5 million.  Whatever the thing is.  Once it happens, it will be very very very hard to turn around.  No amount of amazing lineup will bridge that gap or advertising.  Word of mouth or friends have it, is just too big of an obstacle.  

And no there is not more PS3 out there, I'm not talking WW.  There is nearly double the 360 out there.  I'm from America, and those are the only numbers that matter when i'm talking about word of mouth or friends, ect. none of my friends or I have friends from Europe or Japan and couldn't care less what systems they own.  So for my sales arguments sake, America only matters.   If your from europe I suspect its the complete opposite and everyone of your friends has PS3 and only half 360's.

The Kinect could be a nothing, huge or a quick fad.  I'm just saying that if its either of the last two, it could be just the little nudge that makes the xbox one a winner in NA again.