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Simple economics states that if two products do approximately the same thing, and the price of one is cheaper, the cheaper one will almost always win.

PS4 is going to have all the same multiplats,
They will look the same/marginally better
They will play on a controller that is roughly the same.

A wild card in this case is exclusives. Individual preference will bring over a few diehards to each side, but that is essentially a wash.

Kinect is a differentiating factor, but it probably alienates as many gamers as it brings in families, so I call that a non-factor.

What's left? Two online services that will be roughly the same, both featuring a subscription fee.

I fail to see any reason why Xbox One could win at this point besides lowering price to match PS4.