I originally believed 10 million sold by the end of 2013 would be a realistic expectation. But none of us really had any way of knowing that the goddamn drought would happen and that so many titles would get pushed back like they have. That really killed whatever momentum Wii U had right after launch, and let's be honest, it did good at launch, selling around 3 million units in a month and a half or so span. But then not a single piece of retail software came out in Jan. or Feb. (thanks Ubisoft), and the only Nintendo published (not even Nintendo made) title to come out for about 6 straight months, was Lego City. All of that was just a disaster, and I certainly don't think Nintendo meant for things to end up that way, why would they, but they absolutely dropped the ball.
You have a year head start over your competition, and they pretty royally fucked up what they could have right now. I still think, had they been able to keep the software flowing (as they were able to do in the first year of the Wii), had they gotten games like Pikmin and Wii Fit U out the gate in early 2013 like they were originally supposed to, if Ubisoft had released Rayman Legends on time back in Feb., etc. etc. etc., I do still think they would have at least sold 6 million or so by now. As it is, with all the stumbling and fuck ups along the way, they're standing at about 4 million, which isn't GREAT by any measure, but it's also arguably better than you'd think they deserve after such an abysmal stretch of the year. This has not been the first year of a new console they should have had, nor one that any Nintendo fan wanted. But here's hoping they can solidify things in these last two holiday months, and carry that strongly (this time) into 2014.
I still feel that they'll at least reach 5 million by the end of Dec., if not a bit more.
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