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Seece on 03 November 2013
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thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

Biased?  Really? 

I just used the fact that Sony said the PS3 was down YOY, so its max would have been 13.8M, since it shipped 13.9M the previous year.  For the minimum, I just figured that the PS2 had stopped production during that fiscal year, so I highly doubt it was near the 4.1M it shipped the previous year.  Hence, the 3M estimate.  It's not bias, it's using common sense. 

I'm guessing ioi came up with similar numbers, since VGC numbers were changed.

Nothing to do with common sense, the numbers could be all over the place, if you don't have direct access to them you're doing nothing but assuming. And yes, bias 0_o don't act like that's such a shock to you.

You're assuming they surpassed their FY by a good lump, why? There is no precedent for that? The previous two FY forecasts they missed (aimed for 14.5m in FY12, got 13.9m. FY11 aimed for 15m, got 14.3m.)

PS2 stopped production in January, the quarter was then bloated by Sony added the remainder PS2 stock in there.

FYQ411 - 3.3m PS2 + PS3 combined
FYQ412 - 2.5m PS2 + PS3 combined
FYQ413 - 3.4m PS2 + PS3 combined

Also take into consideration the PS3's last 2 quarters, showing quite steep drops. 1.1m and 2m are both vastly down (expected, gen is dying) compared to what they usually do. To expect that to have been a sudden drop whilst last year was flat/on par is strange.


You're expecting something like this for last FY (at 13.5m shipped)

Q1 - 1.8m - FLAT
Q2 - 3.5m - down 200k yoy
Q3 - 6.3m - down 200k yoy
Q4 - 1.9m - FLAT

That's with sales in that period down in Japan 400k~, US down 1.17m and Europe is a guess.

As the cherry on the icing of the cake, Sony are silent. No "we've passed 80 million" "we've surpassed Xbox 360" far bigger than beating them in the US last month which they happily touted about.

So yes, you don't know the meaning of the world common sense fella ;)

I guess you were right, there would be bias in your esitmate. 

So you think the PS2 had only dropped 15% in its last year?  This is going to be the DS's last year, and its down 91% for Q1+Q2, compared to last year (2012's 980K vs 2013's 90K).  If we even go back two FYs, 2012 was down 54% compared to 2011 (2011's 5.1M vs 2012's 2.35M).  The Wii is in a similar situation.  It's down 65% for the same period compared to last FY (2012's 1.33M vs 2013's 460K).  For the previous fiscal years, 2012 was down 59% (2011's 9.84M vs 2012's 3.99M).  It seems quite amazing that the PS2 would only be able to drop a mere 15%.  I think my 27% drop seems a bit more rational. 

And, by your own estimate they have reached 80M, yet they haven't said a thing.  Hmm.  Also, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Sony ever made an official statement regarding September's NPD.  Hmm.  Sorry, but Sony (and Nintendo) works different than MS, they don't scream every achievement, whether large or small, from the hilltop. 

I think your bias may be showing.

No there is bias in yours, my estimates are more logical than yours, even so I'm not using them, I'm saying based on what we have all we should assume is that they hit their FY forecast and are at 80m (even though I don't believe they have)

Why don't you read my post again and counter everything I say?

PS2 only dropped 15% YoY because if Q4 3.4m shipment. I mean unless of course you think PS3 was like 3m of that? Wait a second don't, I don't wanna know if you actually believe that. If PS2 wasn't being discontinued that Q would have been much lower than PS2 sales would have been down significantly YOY.

Nothing I've said is bias, in fact everything in my post was factual. Yours?? All assumptions.

Your opinion: I think PS3 beat the FY forecast of 13m, and was down only 400k yoy (lord lol) depsite official trackers showing it down over 1.5m in that period. Despite Sony not hitting their previous 2FY forecasts by 500 - 700k, despite Sony not saying and confirming anything. PS3 shipped the bulk of that 3.4m in Q4, meaning it was it's bes Q4 by a massive margin!! despite sales being down this Q everywhere! Magic!

My opinion: PS2 was only down 15% because Sony shipped remaining stock in Q4 (3.4m) which explains the anomoly (Up YoY) Sony haven't said a thing, which is odd and leads me to believe it hasn't happened, PS3 was down everywhere, every Q which leads me to believe they did not ship 13.5m for the FY or anywhere near.