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Seece on 03 November 2013
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thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:

Really late to this thread, but better late than never.  Just wanted to make an observation regarding VGC estimates. 

According to my estimates from this thread, at the end of their last fiscal year, Sony had shipped 77.4M-77.7M PS3s.  This was also the last fiscal year where they started to include PS2 numbers with their PS3 numbers, so we know the PS3 has, in fact, shipped 3.1M in the last two quarters.  So, at the end of Sept, Sony has most likely shipped 80.5M-80.8M units.  VGC shows 79.8M units sold to customers, or 700K-1M still on shelves.

Seems to me that VGC tracking is either pretty spot on up until now or just a smidge undertracked.  Either way, I'm not complaining. 

Your estimates are biased though, mine will be too. The only thing anyone should be going on is Sony's fiscal year forecast, which was 13 million. We didn't hear if they missed it, met it, or surpassed it, so the best thing in my opinion is to assume they met it, 13 million straight. This puts them at 80 million.

Biased?  Really? 

I just used the fact that Sony said the PS3 was down YOY, so its max would have been 13.8M, since it shipped 13.9M the previous year.  For the minimum, I just figured that the PS2 had stopped production during that fiscal year, so I highly doubt it was near the 4.1M it shipped the previous year.  Hence, the 3M estimate.  It's not bias, it's using common sense. 

I'm guessing ioi came up with similar numbers, since VGC numbers were changed.

Nothing to do with common sense, the numbers could be all over the place, if you don't have direct access to them you're doing nothing but assuming. And yes, bias 0_o don't act like that's such a shock to you.

You're assuming they surpassed their FY by a good lump, why? There is no precedent for that? The previous two FY forecasts they missed (aimed for 14.5m in FY12, got 13.9m. FY11 aimed for 15m, got 14.3m.)

PS2 stopped production in January, the quarter was then bloated by Sony added the remainder PS2 stock in there.

FYQ411 - 3.3m PS2 + PS3 combined
FYQ412 - 2.5m PS2 + PS3 combined
FYQ413 - 3.4m PS2 + PS3 combined

Also take into consideration the PS3's last 2 quarters, showing quite steep drops. 1.1m and 2m are both vastly down (expected, gen is dying) compared to what they usually do. To expect that to have been a sudden drop whilst last year was flat/on par is strange.


You're expecting something like this for last FY (at 13.5m shipped)

Q1 - 1.8m - FLAT
Q2 - 3.5m - down 200k yoy
Q3 - 6.3m - down 200k yoy
Q4 - 1.9m - FLAT

That's with sales in that period down in Japan 400k~, US down 1.17m and Europe is a guess.

As the cherry on the icing of the cake, Sony are silent. No "we've passed 80 million" "we've surpassed Xbox 360" far bigger than beating them in the US last month which they happily touted about.

So yes, you don't know the meaning of the world common sense fella ;)