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There's no way it would be doing so much better than XO if it was $500, especially since XO would have plainly better value with kinect 2 bundled in, that's for sure. The "sources" that say $60 are probably about right even if not legit, but that's worth the market/mind share being $100 cheaper gets you. It wasn't a last minute or reactionary decision, they've planned this long in advance, it's partly why they're charging for online now. They see it as worth it in the long run.

Let's keep in mind that this isn't close to PS3's ($200) or 360's ($130) losses at launch.