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makingmusic476 on 05 March 2008
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tombi123 said:

I think a big reason why the 360 is doing so bad in Europe relative to NA is because so many of its games go to PC. The PC gaming market is so much bigger in Europe than it is in NA, so people in Europe are more likely to buy Bioshock, Mass Effect etc on PC than 360.

The 360's biggest exclusive is Halo 3. That didn't have a big enough effect in Europe. The PS3 is about 500K behind the 360 in Europe, and is outselling it by about 35K weekly. The PS3 will pass 360 in Europe about June/July time.

In Japan both consoles are doing badly. Although I think the PS3 numbers are slightly lower than normal due to anticipation for the new colour model and Yakuza bundle. I think we should expect 20K weekly for the PS3. While the 360 will be at about 2-3K weekly.

NA is 360's strongest market by far. At the moment it is selling slightly more than the PS3 weekly. It should also be said that the difference between 360 and PS3 weekly sales in NA is smaller than the difference between the PS3 and 360 weekly sales in Japan at the moment. The PS3 is outselling the 360 by roughly 15K weekly in Japan. In NA the 360 is outselling the PS3 by roughly 10K weekly.

I think this trend will continue until the release of GTA4. I expect this to increase 360 way more than PS3 sales in NA because of the DLC. I think it will increase the PS3 and 360 about the same in 'Others'. It will increase PS3 sales in Japan more than 360 sales, but it will be pretty insignificant.

Conclusion: The PS3 will continue to outsell the 360 every week up until the release of GTA4. Then the 360 will outsell the PS3 for about 2-3 weeks WW. After that the PS3 will regain the lead. It will increase the amount it outsells the 360 each week with the release of MGS4. This will continue into the holidays. The PS3 will outsell the 360 in each territory this christmas holiday (yes, even NA).


I agree with just about everything that you've said, except for your GTA assertion. I believe that the ps3 will outsell the 360 WW even during the launch of GTAIV, unless the 360 gets a $50 price cut before hand. If the 360's price is cut by $50 or so (which I believe it will be), then the 360 will outsell the ps3 up until the release of MGS4. After that, the 360's sales spike will have slowed, and the ps3's Summer exclusives (MGS4, Socom: Confrontation, probably Tekken 6) will lift the ps3 quite a bit above the 360. From that point on, the ps3 will only increase it's lead.