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I'm going to be conservative and guess 18k. Japan really doesn't seem to care about the Wii U, and I think it'll be an uphill battle to build decent sales there. I'd love to see it get over 30k, but I'm just not sure I can expect that with a couple of new releases known more for their legs than for their first-week sales, no price drop, and a couple of bundles with games that came out a while ago.