If anyone knows or cares, I happen to be the host of the prediction league, and a 360 fan as well. Every week I'm going to post up some information and extrapolation about the VGChartz sales data.
Sales are very fun to me, and I've always been huge on numbers, regardless of what form they were (my first b/day present ever was a calculator that I would use day & night figuring statistics out when I was 5).
Anyways, I'm going to do a weekly post about US, Japan and European sales (if available), and some insights into how the 360 is doing, and relevant sales info. Anyways:
America
#1 overall - Forza Motorsports 2, 148,711wk / 148,711 total
Although the #1 game of the week, sales are far below my projections (of 250k or so). This is despite reports of sellouts at some stores. However, sales of this game should be stronger than most titles, and should garner anywhere from a 3x to 5x sales multiplier. If the game can manage 75,000+ next week, the game should easily pass 500k in the US, and maybe even 750k. Expect this game to do even better in Europe, as Forza 1 outsold the US version. Also, it's worthwhile to note that Forza 2 has already sold 33 Percent of Forza 1's lifetime US total.
#5 overall - Shadowrun, 64,591wk / 64,591 total
This game preformed incredibly well, despite the odds against it - it's multiplayer only, was poorly reviewed (but strongly reccomended by owners). With great WOM, this game could do fairly well. However, as with many X360 FPS games, sales are typically not so great. I Expect a fairly weak 2nd week around 30,000 Units and around a 200,000 lifetime total.
#10 overall - Command & Conquer 3, 32,674wk / 280,937 total
In all honesty, C&C3's sales are by far, the most important of the week, aside from Forza. C&C 3 has, in 1 month, passed LOTR: BFME2's entire LTD sales on the 360. With no end in sight, and absolutely incredible drops (30%/wk or so since its 2nd week), this game could get close to 500,000 before it dies. This is VERY important news for any other RTSes for the 360. With OverLord and World In Conflict on the way, they now have a very solid base for sales since EA has paved the way.
#12 overall - Guitar Hero 2, 28,655wk / 706,791 total
Again, a solid preformer. No real important info, outisde of the reality this game can easily become The next 1m+ seller in the US
#14 overall - POTC 3, 23,003wk / 30,854 total
A very suprising increase on the week for suck a poorly-reviewed game. With this game actually selling something at all, along with shrek 3, shows that the user base of the 360 *might* be something different outside of the typical 15-23 male crowd, and signaling that there might be younger users of the 360 console.
#15 overall - Crackdown, 22,285wk / 774,651 total
Crackdown finally falls out of the top overall 10, after the Halo 3 beta. This game has sold very well, adding 100,000 units in the past 3 weeks. Before the game launched, I assumed this game would get an easy 1m units. After a quick dropoff in March, it looked like it was then impossible. Should Crackdown have decent drops, it could easily get to the 1m point by the end of the year.
#23 overall - Fight Night Round 3, 13,156wk / 950,976 total
Skipping SM3, FN3 is an absolute beast. It's certainly helped since the price drop. This game started out with 162,500 units of sales it's opening week, and is still selling incredibly well, never dropping out of the top 50 for more than awhile. Expect this game to get to the 1m point next overall. Certainly a great game, that could end around 1,100,000 before it finally drops off the radar - if not more sales.
#38 overall - Rainbow Six Vegas, 9,488wk / 939,390 total
Like FNR3, RSV had poor sales in light of uber-title Gears of War and Call of Duty 3. However, RSV has maintained strong 10k+ sales until this week. With decent drops, this game will easily pass the million seller mark without a major price reduction. Far better than GRAW2, it certainly deserves its sales. It's also a strong contender on MGC's top 5 most-played games on XBLA - proof that it continues to sell and play well, as it's consistently in the top 5 and, usually in the top 5.
Gears of War, MLB 2k7, GRAW 2 continue to sell at decent 7,500-8,500 unit levels.
#60 overall - Oblivion continues to sell well, reaching 1,125,000 units sold for the Xbox 360.
#75 Lost Planet: Extreme condition hits the 700,000 mark this week, signalling that it still has some juice left. It should easily get past the 750,000 mark, and enter the 800,000 catagory before dying.
#106 Saints Row hits 775,000 total LTD. Although selling worse than its near-identical partner (atleast at release date) Dead Rising, has a better overal LTD. Should hit 800,000 before it's off the charts.
#112 NBA 2k7 hit the great 500,000 mark 2 weeks ago, and continues slow-selling, but still-there sales.
Xbox 360 hardware saw a strong increase over last week, and at 61,000 units for the week, shows that FM2 probably helped sales out a bit. Very good considering the X360 needs all the sales it can get. Expect even stronger increases in Europe for the week when Forza 2 launches next week.
Japan
#44 Overall - Forza 2, 5,169wk / 19,944 total
My big concern was if it'd be over/under 5,000 units. Part of me thinks that when ioi goes over his numbers, this might increase (ala last week). Either way, 5k is just about right. Obviously a bad 65% drop, but at the same time, better than other games like Idolmaster and Gears of War. Next week, provided it gets 2k units, will past TDU. However, with supposed strong reviews from owners about the anime cars, sales could be pretty strong on the 3rd week. I still believe it can slowly get to 35k, or more.
#122 Overall - Blue Dragon, 693wk / 188,530 total
Blue Dragon continues to impress me with sales. Why? 3 months ago, the game was only #92 on the charts. It's only dropped 60% week to week sales from 3 months ago. This is pretty good for an RPG, and expecially a X360 RPG.
I have a feeling when Trusty Bell launches, we should see sales increase quite a bit, and get back in the top 100, or even top 75. I believe BD still has enough gas to reach 200,000 units in Japan, or more. If TB really moved tons of hardware units, its entirely possible BD could even reach 225,000.
Nothing else really notable on other s/w titles. Crackdown hits 28,000. NBA Homecourt has a monstorous 70% drop. IdolM@ster still keeps going. Just like the TB increase for BD, with IdolM@ster being of similar art style, it could get a small increase - enough to wind up with 50,000+ sales. Dead Rising hits 67,000. An impresisve number for a Z-rated game that launched selling only 21,000 units.
Hardware - a slight increase from last week (after numbers were adjusted). The 360 continues to serverely outpace last year's sales. It's around 47,000 above last years sales. No new games in Japan next week, so we'll only have Forza + weak games to worry about.
I would predict that s/w sales should be around 6,000~7,000 next week, and h/w around 2,200 units. Overall, it's still selling around 50% more h/w and s/w than it was this time last year.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
