I think it's safe to assume the Xbox One is going to do worse than the 360 over there. The 360 will probably end up around 1.7M sold, but I can only see the One selling MAYBE 1M-1.5M.
The TV/multimedia features and Kinect 2.0 are just not going to appeal to the core gamers there. And I doubt we'll see MS spend millions, like they did at the beginning of last gen, to secure Japanese exclusives and DLC for a measly 1M in sales. Heck, even the massive size of the One is going to turn them off, especially those with small apartments.
Of course, you also have the recent article about how all PS4 preorders sold out within a half hour in Japan to show you that demand for the PS4 is high.







