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I think the game itsels will sell around 200k on it's first week. After that it all depens how the game keeps selling. If it has legs like its predecessors, Yakuza 3 might become the best selling PS3 game in Japan and the first one to break the 500k mark (allthough HSG 5 might do that before yakuza 3 if it gets a "the best" release soon).

I expect hardwar around 40k during the launch week.