The Kinect-based arcade game Dance Evolution is in most arcades here.
Since the new Kinect requires less space, it should work better here.
Who knows how Japan will work out this time around. I do think that Sony has a good chance since Nintendo has basically thrown in the towel already (Although, the Wii U will have one more holiday season to itself, but it is not looking good). Also, phones, tablets, and handhelds have a bigger impact here than in the US as it is a commuter society, and I don't know how big of an impact that will have. If people get their gaming fixes playing Puzzles and Dragons on their phones or MH4 on the 3DS, will they invest in a home system?
For all the mathematics above. A vast majority of the 360 sales in Japan happened during the first few years, so I don't think it is fair to divide by 7 or 8.
The 360 still has a decent retail presence here, usually much bigger than the Wii U.
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