badgenome said:
To use VGChartz numbers (of which I'm usually skeptical, but numbers for older games eventually get changed to reflect what publishers have released in their reports): Monster Hunter Portable launched with 140k and legged its way all the way to 1.31m. Almost ten times launch, but this was where the series started to take off so it's definitely not typical. MHP2 launched with 793k and had lifetime sales of 2.52m, over 3 times first week sales. Freedom Unite launched at 914k and all told did a whopping 5.37m all told, more than 5 times launch. The closest it's come to doing twice initial sales was MHP3, which did 1.97m launch and 4.87m lifetime, which is still about 2 1/2 times launch. And MH3U had aligned launches of about 623k and has sold 2.26m to date, better than 3 1/2 times launch. |
You admitted the error in your own analysis there, in which the series was building popularity... which you deem to not be the case anymore.
Additionally, you are ignoring that none of those games were launch games. Which have different legs. The only one close to relvent is MHP3. Since it's the one released at the height of it's popularity.
Now throw in how launch games work and the Vita's low sales... and what do you get? Maybe 700K at launch? 2 million lifetime if lucky if it would of released on vita when it did 3DS?
That's what a launch game would sell. So if Vita is still in launch state... Thats not exactly a great sign. I mean again. Look at launch games.
Your whole arguement boils down to everything acting nothing like it usually does essentially... on the basis that monster hunter will perform identical to how it has before, under completely different and far more negative circumstances.
