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I'm leaning towards within the first year of sales for both the XB1 and the PS4.

I don't have any emotional stake in any company and in full disclosure, the only one I own shares of is Nintendo (which has been the bottom bitch in my portfolio since I added it years ago).

If I wanted to make an informed guess, I'd simply take a look at the production numbers for all three consoles from the XB1 and PS4 launches through 2014 with the only potential wild card being that Nintendo consoles have traditionally been seasonal (holiday) sellers for children and have historically demonstrated Q4 heavy sales. That bump will dissolve rapidly by February, if it happens in 2013 in any significant way at all.