I like the way your thinking Nintendo WiiU could still recover I don't believe it is a lost cause until next spring. If the WiiU doesn't push 15 million units by the end of the 2013 fiscal year. I am confident Nintendo can make a recovery with WiiU, 8 million units sold is likely the worst case scenerio by the end of the financial year. Why am I so confident Nintendo will recover the WiiU? America!
You point to Pikmin3, Pikmin3 was number 2 on the global charts five weeks after its release. Thats right a WiiU game lasted five weeks within the top 3 which shows the power that Nintendo titles still have. As for Rayman Legends that is a bad example 27K is a terrible and if the game had been an exclusive it could have seen 100k+. Nintendo failed at E3 to show any true super powers for the western market but they did have a few decent releases. You can expect the Zelda bundle to do a million or so units over the holiday season. Nintendo Canada at E3 said that the ZombiU bundle regularily sells out you can expect Nintendo to have a good number of those units on sale during the holiday season as well.
So what do I think is going to save WiiU in North America?
BlackFriday - 1+ million units (Basic Model)
Boxing Day- 1+ million units (Basic Model)
Zelda Bundle 1+ million units
ZombiU Bundle 250k
NintendoLand Bundle 500k
Prediction total sold this holiday in North American domestic market - 3.750,000-5,750,000
Now let me break down why I feel Black Friday and Boxing Day are going to be so massive for Nintendo. One word "Basic" model, Nintendo recalled a lot of their Basic models from major retailers. The Basic models are sitting in Nintendo warehouses and Nintendo isn't just going to dump them in New Mexico. Nintendo is probably going to repackage the Basic consoles or simply send them back to retailers as Door Crashers at a price of say 199.99$ with a game like Lego bundled with it. A 199$ Basic bundle with Lego would fly off of shelves faster than stores could pull them from the back of the store.
For a store like EBGames, Nintendo could do a deal like (Buy 5 games and get a Basic WiiU free). Similar deals have worked extremely well in the past and not only would Nintendo be getting a console into a persons home they would help third parties generate revenue. If 2-3 of those 5 games were 3rd party titles suddenly publishers like UbiSoft, Acitivsion, WarnerBros would have adequate reason to continue developing games. The software sales boost on BlackFriday would be enough to make Nintendo profitable. The sales would be repeated in Canada & Europe on Boxing Day. The sales would be nearly identical and Nintendo could empty their warehouses of the Basic models they have stocked up.
A side bonus is that when retailers run out of 199$ WiiU Basic Models the 299$ Deluxe Models will sell. Parents out to buy their kid a WiiU will have to buy the more expensive console instead. Nintendo wouldn't need to cut the price on any of their first party titles as all of them will sell fairly well, but a sales price on ZombiU, Call Of Duty Black Ops II and other launch titles will help get rid of stock. Newer games like Call Of Duty Ghosts, Watch Dogs, Sonic Lost World, Sribblenaughts Unmasked will also benefit from the increased hardware sales.
Another bonus for Nintendo will be that both Sony and Microsoft will be sold out ahead of Black Friday. Even if either company has stock available on Black Friday it will sell out just as fast as Nintendo's Basic model's. This will leave Nintendo the entire week of Black Friday and Boxing Week to sell WiiU's unchallenged. By targeting the younger demographic and parents Nintendo can keep WiiU's flying off shelves the entire holiday season.
I expect Nintendo to make a bulk of their sales on Black Friday week and Boxing Week when they will sell out all of their Basic stock as well as sell a good amount of Deluxe models. Nintendo is also saving its marketing budget for the holiday's a lack of advertisements indicates that Nintendo is spending its advertising budget strategically. I suspect Nintendo will rival Microsoft and Sony in advertising over the holidays.
So what about December and Spring? Nintendo will have a few new games coming in the spring Bayonetta 2, Mario Kart & Yarn Yoshi but they will also have several new IP. At E3 2013 Iwata said the company had several new intellectual property for this next fiscal year but felt E3 was not the appropriate venue. Expect at least 2-3 new IP to launch in the spring. Nintendo will also announce Pokemon (3D game, ie XD sequel) for Winter 2014 which will help reassure consumers of the consoles viability.
With a massive first party lineup for 2014 including Smash Bros, Project X, Pokemon, Bayonetta 2 & Mario Kart Nintendo will be able to maintain its sales from Q1-Q4 2014. The recovery will continue into 2015 when RetroStudios next big game will carry the beginning of the year! Oh and one more thing Nintendo Canada told me this year that they have tripled North American game development this year and we should start seeing the results in 2015.
In other words the WiiU should recover, Nintendo delayed its 2013 Q1 & Q2 games to Q3 so that they could move their other games into 2014. The company is going to throw its full force into WiiU next year.The Wii will recover and North America will play a major role in that. Add in international sales in Europe and a lot less impactful Japan and a minimum of 8 million units will be sold by Q2 2014. If Nintendo can shift 15 million units by the end of their financial year they will be competitive with Xbox One and PS4.
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
