Probably within the next 3-4 years. The fact is Japan outside of a few stalwarts has already abandoned trying to compete and moved the majority of their software to portable consoles and mobile platforms. Many Western 3rd parties that banking on the model are finding diminishing returns in all but their most profitable bread winners.
If the jump in cost to develop stays on the pre-Steam PC gaming like approach only EA, Blizzard Activision and a few others will be left standing and the business models they would likely implement would be the death toll of console gaming. Unsurprisingly, the hope for console gaming to return to its glory days of variety and abundance lies in a surge similar to what Steam has provided PC gaming with the digital markets, Indie developers and smaller budget software sold at lower then normal pricing is the only hope most traditional gamers that are now well over 25 have.
Although short of some major collapses I don't see a lot of the current major developers jumping on board such ideas anytime soon.
