While I highly doubt 3DS+Vita can hit 200million lifetime combined sales, that would still be a reduction of the handheld market from last gen (DS+PSP are around 230 I believe). My guess is the 3DS (with 2DS and Nintendo pulling out all the stops) will settle somewere right around 100-110 Million and PSVita (including VITA.TV and what ever else they are able to do to entice buyers) will get somewhere around 30-40 Million.
my vision of 230 to 150 means the dedicated handheld market would have shrunk to roughly 65% of what it was last gen.
or your goal of a drop from 230 to 200 means it would have only shrunk to 87% of what it was last gen. Still a lot better but would be the first major decline in handheld gaming gen over gen I believe (Gameboy numbers being over GBA numbers on this site is a little misleading as Gameboy includes the original in 1989 all the way to GameBoy Color which kept selling a little after GBA's release in 2001)
Systems Currently Playing: WiiU, PS3, 3DS
Also Have: Atari 2600, NES, SNES, PS1, N64, PS2, Wii, GB, GBC, GBA, DSLite, DSi, Android (RazorMax), iPhone (4), iPad (2)
