darkknightkryta said:
Nintendo's hardware is generally on a 5 year cycle. I think the Wii was the exception at 6. 3DS is 3 now no? Or going to be. So Nintendo has a successor in the works already. |
In response to this, Nintendo's handheld lifespans vary and do not follow the same pattern as home consoles. The original GameBoy hardware was out 1989 to 2001 before the Advance replaced it, yet DS launched in late 2004, before 3DS launched in 2011. There's quite a bit of variation there, though obviously looking at launch dates doesn't tell the full story: whether or not the hardware continues to sell strongly past the launch of a successor system also informs you as to the length of that systems life span.
In response to the thread, I can't see that happening, and I think including Vita TV unit sales as "portable" sales is nonsense. Sony have taken some of Vita's aspects (the non-portable aspects) and created a micro-console. Vita as a handheld system has not yet gained, and does not appear to be able to gain, any mass market traction, and as I have said, I do not count Vita TV as a portable console, even if it is an extension/version of the Vita hardware. 3DS is tracking behind DS, and although I believe the combination of 2DS and Pokemon will give the system a strong boost, I do not see that being strong enough to match the runaway success of DS. At absolute best I see 3DS hitting 120 million, if Nintendo keep it as their primary system beyond 2016, but given how turbulent the entire industry is (particularly the portable sector), I think Nintendo will need another handheld before 2017. I'd peg 3DS at a certainty to get to 100 million, though.
I'm not somebody who buys the myth that convergent devices, and in this case smartphones, tablets etc have ruined the market for games dedicated consoles and in particular portables, but I also don't see enough evidence that Sony and Nintendo anticipated how much of a challenge iOS and Android represent as platforms and how much those platforms have disrupted the industry. The Vita and 3DS launched as yesterday's vision of the future, even though both are great systems in their own right. All three manufacturers need to work harder to continue to grow the market for gaming prioritised hardware (can we really say "gaming dedicated" any more?), and I think it's particularly true Nintendo and Sony need to work harder if they want portable consoles to remain a viable or growing business into the next decade.
Given Sony are experimenting with Vita TV, I think they are preparing to give up on the portable sector, and given Nintendo's struggles and lack of direction with Wii U, I think Nintendo will be seriously rethinking what kind of hardware they launch post-3DS and Wii U.
