| Metallicube said: If we are to believe that PS3 will end up with about 90 mil, which I think seems pretty reasonable.. then PS4 I'd put down for a bit less than that, considering the state of the economy, and the fact that this console doesn't seem to change much from PS3 aside from graphics, and may be difficult to justify purchase from some PS3 owners.. I'd say around 75-80 million. |
75-80 million is a bit too conservative IMHO if you consider that even the PS3 did these numbers already and:
a). PS3 faced fierce competition from Xbox 360, one of the most balanced console fights ever, since Genesis X Super NES;
b). PS3 went up against the Wii fad;
c). PS3 launched at 599 and had terrible reputation, among other things;
d). PS3 is at around 80M and shows no sign of stopping sales any soon despite its terrible start.
On the other hand, PS4 is launching cheaper than the competition (Xbone), has a lot of good press going for it, has momentum from this generation's end (PS3 is the winner atm), has extremely strong third party support, Nintendo is not doing so well this time around (Wii U in dire straits, although I believe it will improve soon, it hardly will be a Wii again).
So all things considered Sony will have to mess up a lot to sell only 80M PS4's, or the market will crash and burn really hard for that to happen.
