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Sounds about right in total, but I think the USA:Europe ratio will be different,... in the end GTAIV will sell more in Europe overall by having better legs, but the launch period won't be as heavily USA as that I don't think... more lke 6:4.5 (plus as you say, more in Canada, and depending on release date, some in Japan too)

 

Oh, lifetime it won't sell that much more than the 10-11 million this year though... I think combined LTD will be around 14 million (compared to GTA:SA which has sold 15 million on PS2 alone)