It should do on par with Heavy Rain. I'd imagine Two Souls will pick up much of the same audience. It should also pick up some sales from the late adopters although I don't see many consumers buying a $199 PS3 to play it.
The three things I see that could potentially hurt sales would be if the game just isn't particularly good, either in the execution or more importantly, the story and characters which was really the selling point of Heavy Rain. While there's clearly still a market for such games, I'm not entirely sure if the branching interactive film concept would sell if it didn't stand out on its own merits.
Second; if many of the former PS3 users who bought Heavy Rain have grown tired with the PS3 and have more or less stopped playing games on it if they are even still using it (it is deep into the 7th gen where gamer fatigue has set in for many of the earlier adopters). Game purchases may have tapered off for many PS3 users and Two Souls could take a hit if it doesn't receive glowing reviews as a "must play" game.
Third; it does happen to be releasing about a month or so before the release of the PS4, which may steal some sales for those early adopters who want to put all their gaming funds into new hardware and games for said new hardware. Of course, there are still tens of millions of current PS3 users who won't be buying a PS4 on launch, so as long as the older/mature audience group doesn't skew heavily into the PS4 buying demographic, this may not have much of an effect on it.
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