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As you said, I think after the gamecube and now the WiiU, nintendo have seen how quickly their empire can fall. Seeing as it's the handheld division that's always kept them afloat during these times, I imagine they are doing everything in their power to ensure that the Vita fails enough for Sony to not bother making another.

Really though, mobile gaming is going to make handheld gaming smaller and smaller over the next few years. It's not going to disappear, but the days of a handheld selling 150 million units is looong gone.