Now that the Vita had a price drop, will the Wii U still be able to catch it this year?

[zorg1000]

JoeTheBro said:

zorg1000 said:

pezus said:

teigaga said:

tbone51 said:

small44 said:

 

Wonderful 101, Disney Infinity, Watch Dogs and Assassin's Creed IV

Seriously though, he probably means Wii U Party (or whatever it's called), Zelda, Mario and DK. I don't think any one of them will be huge though. Zelda might crawl over a million, Mario will sell 3-5m eventually, DK 2-4m eventually and WiiU Party is anyone's guess

When was the last time a mainline Mario or DK sold so little? Every mainline console Donkey Kong game in the last 20 years has sold over 5 milliom with the exception of DKC3. Every 3D Mario has sold  6-12 million. Not sure what makes u think those series will all of a sudden sell half of what they consistently sell.

When was the last time Nintendo had a system performing as badly as the Wii U? Never. Well Virtual Boy, but that never got any of these big franchises so we can pretty much ignore it.

Look at NSMBU. It's at 2 million and with legs could make it to 3 or so. When the other games in the series are at 29 mil on DS and 27 on Wii, and 6 mil on the 3DS. That franchise scales perfectly to the instal base of console. Of course there are many other factors to consider, but it shows these games can drop in sales by a huge amount. It makes Pez's prediction plausible.

However since the 3DS is Nintendo's most recent console to get these games, we can make predictions based off sales ratios from say 3D Mario to 2D Mario, using NSMBU as a base (3 mil since I'm caring for long term sales). This gives us only 4 million sales for Super Mario 3D World. That is perfectly within Pezuzezs prediction. Only math, no biased opinions on this one. This technique puts Mario Kart 8 right under 4 million. Donkey Kong only has the remake on 3DS so we can't use its numbers, but based off the Wii game sales ratio, it should be not too much above a million.

Based off those numbers, Wii U would only sell like 10 million lifetime. Ur NSMBU argument doesnt really add up, DS/Wii/3DS versions released after the consoles had been out for 2-3 years so had an established userbase and library to go along with it. On Wii U its a launch title and one of 3 Nintendo games released in the first 8 months, of course it hasnt sold nearly as well as other installments.

People seem to have this notion that NSMB is a system seller in and of itself but it has always had alot of high selling titles already available by the time it released and price of console plays a role as well.

DS-$129, Brain Training, Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Mario 64DS

Wii-$199 Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Mario Galaxy, Twilight Princess

3DS-$169/199 Mario Kart, Mario 3D Land, OoT 3D and now Animal Crossing, Luigis Mansion

Wii U-$349 Nintendo Land

There is no reason to believe that Wii U sales wont increase once certain titles release and price comes down. Sales should pick up this holiday with 3D World, DKC, Wii Fit/Party, Wind Waker and holiday bundles/discounts. Next year can continue momentum with a price cut and Mario Kart, Smash Bros and possibly Wii Sports, Zelda U.

Another thing ur numbers dont take into account is that those 3DS titles arent done selling, Mario Kart/3D Land/NSMB2 will all likely sell around 15 million so based off ur ratio, Wii U versions of those games could sell more closely to 7-8 million.