| the-pi-guy said: 1.) While we are to some extent seeing a lot of that right now. I think it'll broaden out as we go on. Especially in the first few years, new IPs will be made. See Knack, there aren't many PS3/Xbox 360 games like that. Just because AAA gaming is so huge right now, does not mean that we aren't still going to have indie games and 'A' and 'AA' games. Atlus for example is a very niche studio, their best selling game hasn't even sold 2 million. Their second best selling game hasn't even sold 1 million. They are getting along just fine though. As downloads start to become larger on the new systems, we should see more niche titles. The reason being is it's easier to publish a title, they'll be able to get away with selling smaller titles. The Vita's problem is that there are very few AAA games, the smaller games are great, but they aren't usually the reason to buy a system. 2.) Of course sales are down, there is not much reason to buy much right now. Most people that want consoles already have consoles, and the ones that don't are still waiting for the price to go down. It seems to me that there is a lot of interest in moving onto PS4 and Xbox One. 1 million preorders for PS4, 3 months from launch and at 400$. That's crazy. 3.) A company isn't entitled to exist, plenty of the best games are being made without gigantic budgets. Uncharted 2 had a budget of $20 million, and it only needed to sell 1 million copies to make a profit. On the other side we have Grand Theft Auto V which might have costed $137 million. Despite this huge difference, both of these games will probably make a huge profit. In GTAV's case, gigantic profits. Isn't that what capitalism is all about? Taking a risk to be able make money. Making a niche title is a risk. Making a AAA title that plays like CoD is still a risk. Even though it doesn't seem like it, it still is a risk. 4.) You really don't think they'll be able to synthesize the human voice in a convincing manner by the time Strong AI is possible? Story driven games do not have to be movie-like. Most of that idealism has come from this gen I'd argue. More games today are trying to become showcases. 5.) Based on Xbox 360 and PS3 sales, 150 million+, there is still going to be a huge market. I don't think that the industry will be in for a rude awakening, rather a moderate sized paradigm shift. |
Let me reply to the points below here, in this section, because trying to embed them in the above will be an issue.
1. The new stuff you see is likely to be on the smaller indie side, with lower production costs involved, and experimental. There will be some top of the line stuff, but the bigger the budget, the less risks a title will take. What I believe you will see is open world, trying to throw as much as possible in there, pitched to investors as the next big thing.
2. The issue with sales down, is if the sales are being syphoned off to 99 cent apps on smart devices, the industry is seriously concerned. This looks like one thing that is happening actually. In short, the money won't be there.
3. Sure studios don't need to exist, but if you have most dying off, and people always on edge, they will end up leaving. And you will have less studios putting out content. Seen as not a growth area, new talent will go elsewhere. You then face a weaker version of what happened in the early 1980s.
4. If you start seeing synthesized voices and said smart AI, you are then going to see the movie indusrty not using voice actors. Unless you are speculating there will be a sudden boom in games where players interact with robots as NPCs, who are that. You will see technology first in movies, because they currently can afford that. And expect to see dead actors still being around in film as their estates peddle their images and identity. This still hasn't happened yet. What is today is glorified motion capture.
5. And I won't disagree there isn't going to be a shift. Just no one is sure what that shift is. There will be new business models. But you are seeing a flood of free to play. That is likely a future possibility, as would be Playstation Plus/Netflix where you subscribe to content and not own it.
In all this, costs will need to be kept down. Trying to emulate Hollywood isn't going to work well, and people are going to have to figure out how to more competently try to use game medium in ways that it is meant to be, or for storytelling, which is is weaker at.
