It will convert some, I don't think anyone is expecting a huge percentage like we saw the xbox grab from the playstation last gen. Of course those loyal to Gears or Halo will be very relunctant. The thing is the xbox userbase is 7m strong, no exclusive has more then a 15% attachment rate. Which means there are a lot of gamers for the taking in that respect.
I think everyone believes that XBL is a better service in terms of reliability and server support, playstation fans included. But for a lot of people the difference between a good online service and a slightly better one isn't a deciding factor. Also the introduction of PS+ now gives sony an edge in the eyes of some.
Controller wise, word of mouth and hands on experience will quickly remove preconceptions. Remember the Original Xbox was a laughing stock because of its controller, and people were very conditioned to the dual shock. That didn't stop MS from adopting playstaion owners when the 360 came out.
The real prevention will be community and familiarity.
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