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For what it is offering right now and Xbox track record for my tastes in gaming? I doubt $299 would convince me to buy one. Even if I ignore how utterly insulting and incompetent they have been in 2013 they still have not shown in four years to make exclusive games I want. Compared to other platforms that have had dozens of titles. I have zero confidence in Microsoft as of now, I would say they'd have to work very hard to win me back by 2015/2016.

All that said, for the overall market it would definitely have an impact though as $100 more right now is a deterrent for many.