I think this holiday, along with PS4 launch and a potential price cut, will be the defining points whether the Vita is successful or not. If not, I can see it being dicontinued by the end of FY2014 (so as long as it's not profitable).
e=mc^2
Gaming on: PS4 Pro, Switch, SNES Mini, Wii U, PC (i5-7400, GTX 1060)