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The Wii U will either pass the Vita this Christmas/ Q1 2014 or never. They're both expensive systems with only a handful of titles, so by and large their sales have been poor, but the Wii U has a fantastic Q3-4 2013 and Q1 2014 launch lineup. After that, the Vita will get whatever boost it gets from remote play.

It's really a question of if the Wii U will ever hit critical mass. The one which hits critical mass first will outstrip the other, and that may be sales to attract developers or titles to attract gamers. It's just too hard to call.