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akuma587 said:
bigjon said:
I will wait on NDP to see if this PS3 tear is true... the software sales do not seem to be backing it up much. Is it possible that ioi over adjusted his formula after undertracking it in Jan? I still think NDP could have had the PS3 too high. Walmart is not tracked by NDP and NDP may have calcualted WalMart by the Same formula they used in the PS2 days. But that was back when the casuals all bought their PS2 games from WM. Now many casuals have moved over to the Wii I beleive NDP's formula is bogus.

That is why Wii was low and PS3 high. Their formula is off. Sometimes historical methods can lead to gross inacuracy.

I'm sorry, if you really think NPD (who has thousands of people working for it) has less accurate numbers than VGChartz (who has tens of people working for it), you are dumber than I think you are. NPD may be flawed because it doesn't include Wal-Mart, but its data is 100% legit.

I mean no disrespect to VGChartz whatsoever, and I commend it wholeheartedly for what it does, but claiming VGChartz is more reliable than the NPD is one of the dumbest things I have heard in my life.


I know you are gonna hate to hear this but Vgchartz was about 250k closer for the Wii than NDP was for decembers(nintendo's official numbers confirm this). I happen to know alot about statistics, and I know that they do not have a sample from Walmart(which was known last gen as a bastion of PS2 casuals sales)

Things have change since last gen and if NDP has not adjusted their formula for Walmart they ARE off. The Wii has effectly stolen most casuals from sony, and as I stated earlier the others have gone to MS. The PS3 did not sell great over Christmas despite being in ample stock, and now it is selling better than the other 2? This does not add up. If someone was buying a next gen console for GTA4 they would just pick up a 360 Arcade(not hard to find) and it is 120 bucks cheaper(remember GTA is VERY Casual).

Basically these good sales make no logical sense, NDP without walmart is no better than VGC IMO. ioi changed his formula based on NDP's ESTIMATION, which explains why VGC has been about 30k higher a week since Jan NDP came out. I believe ioi may have over adjusted because NDP is high. That sums it up.

(sorry, for bad grammer- I have to get back to one of my clients)



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut