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I think that 11m in 2016 is kinda low. Gran Turismo is a big franchise, GT Portable sold very well(4,22 shipped, VGChartz showing less than 3m sold, probably very undertracked), without career mode and online(besides ad-hoc), an Gran Turismo Portable 2 with carrer and online mode would sell a lot more. And the same goes to God of War, if it gets bundled. Bioshock is a big franchise. They announced the game, but until now, we dont know if they will do the game(Just like Resident Evil Portable, announced in 2009 i think).

Lets say they follow your plan. I think Vita would sell more than 15m in 2016. Sony needs Monster Hunter in Japan, no more Monster Hunter-Like Games.