I know, I know. Most people will say the Vita is dead, and Sony won't do anything to save it. I think that's wrong. Sony would love to save the Vita, but the PS4 is where the big stakes are. Sony currently can't afford to save the Vita. They don't have the luxury, so they're keeping it undead, until they have the resources to do it. SCE is fighting a battle they know they can win.
But what can be done for the Vita? How can they resurrect it? I made a plan for the next 5 years of its lifetime. So form 2014 till 2018 I have a plan that won't affect the PS4, and in the meantime, it could save the Vita from dying. It could save Sony handheld business from dying.
The plan is simple: Realesing good and exclusive games, with big price drops along the way.
So it's 2013.
Not much we can do. Releasing the last two first party exclusive is given (Tearaway, Killzone). What they can do is give the handheld good buzz. So at Gamescom do the following things:
1) Announce new CrossBuy games. I hate ports, but the Vita needs games ASAP, and some unique games will need the help of the portable too. My idea would be Rain and Puppeteer coming out on Vita next year. And of course, if Insomniac is willing, then Ratchet and Clank: Into the Nexus.
2) Announce a Heavenly Sword Vita port for 2014. God of War is in no position to save the Vita, so you have to use a subtitute. Announce that (along side the port), a Vita exclusive Heavenly Sword 2 is started the development.
3) Announce new games. This is the last chance to show, that 2014 will be good. Those games has to be in the works, so I tried to look for options, that are possible:
- LBP Karting Vita made by SCE San Diego
They have a good Modnation Racers engine, and a team capable of doing it. BTW a racer per year should be a norm.
- City of Metronome made by Tarsier Studios
It was a good concept, and Vita needs original games.
- Show gameplay footage from Freedom Wars.
- Uncharted Vita 2.
Let's call it Frozen Abyss. Show trailer, and announce multiplayer.
4) Price Drop on Memory Cards. So many people said this already. Drop the price tiers one step down.
What I mean is:
64 GB introduced at 80$
32 GB dropped from 100$ to 60$
16 GB dropped form 60$ to 30$
8 GB dropped form 30$ to 20$
4 GB discountinued
5) Announce that a 4 GB card will be included with every Unit from now on.
6) Drop the price of the Vita price to 199$
I know that's all for 2014, but 2013 is a lost cause already.
At TGS announce 3 new titles:
- Exclusive new IP JRPG made by Level-5
- Gravity Rush 2 made by SCE Japan Studio
- Everybody's Tennis made by Clap Hantz
These titles will came in 2015.
So in 2014 they have a lineup like that:
Rain Vita; MLB: The Show; Freedom Wars; City of Metronome; Puppeteer Vita; Heavenly Sword Vita; LBP Karting Vita; Uncharted: Frozen Abyss
They can't sit on their hands. In early 2014 the Vita starts to lose steam, so they should announce new games.
At E3 show the following:
- New footage from Uncharted: Frozen Abyss
- New trailer for Gravity Rush 2
- Show the first trailer of Heavenly Sword 2
- Announce a new Jak and Daxter made by Sanzaru Games
- Announce Puppeteer 2 from SCE Japan Studio
These games will keep the momentum going and Sony will have couple of Gamescom suprises.
At Gamescom two new games should be announced:
- DriveClub for the Vita made by Evolution Studios
- Infamous for the Vita made by Sucker Punch Productions
Both games will be successful at the PS4 launch, but these developers will be in the shadow as soon as Naugthy Dog, Santa Monica and Polyphony Digital arrives at the PS4 party.
So 2015 lineup is more promising:
Jak & Daxter 4, MLB: The Show, Exc. JRPG form L5, Gravity Rush 2, Puppeteer 2, Everybody's Tennis, Heavenly Sword 2, DriveClub Vita, Infamous Vita
I expect 4 million units sold in 2014, reaching 11 million Vita units sold altogether by the end of 2014. This should start some 3rd party exclusive development. I get there soon.
We've reached 2015.
The 2016 lineup is a hard one. I'm expecting the Vita sales to peak in 2016 and 2017. So Sony will need it's big guns by now. We will have a more crowded lineup in 2016 so, what Sony needs to do is to announce two new games before E3. These two could be throwaway titles, so announceing them on a blog won't be dangerous.
- Ratchet and Clank game made by Idol Minds
This title could be as well a late PS3/Vita title from Insomniac, but I rather have an exclusive.
- SOCOm Vita made by Slant Six Games.
I know. They're not the best, but now that Zipper is gone, they're the only viable option, and a shooter is alway a good thing in the west.
At E3 Sony should release a big Vita showing:
- Infamous Vita gameplay trailer
- Heavenly Sword 2 possible launch trailer
- Gran Turismo Vita made by Polyphony Digital
Gran Turismo 7 will be out in 2015, and I feel should push them to get out a GT game by the end of 2016.
- God of War Vita made by Bluepoint Games.
Yeah. They have a good engine. So after God of War 1+2 Vita port they should get 3 years to make an original GOW.
- First 3rd party exclusive: Bioshock Vita made by Irrational.
At Gamescom Sony will have couple of big games to show:
- Patapon Vita made by SCE Japan Studio
- Tearaway 2 made by Media Molecule
- New IP made by Tarsier
Lineup for 2016:
Ratchet & Clank Vita, MLB: The Show, SOCOM Vita, Patapon Vita, Tarsier New Game, Tearaway 2, Exc. Bioshock by Levine, God of War Vita, Gran Turismo Vita
That's a pretty big year so 7 million sales is a good target. This way Vita would reach 18 million by the end of 2015.
Now it's 2016.
This is the year the Vita will really sell well. The titles are coming for early 2016 so the only thing they need to do is releasing the bomb at E3:
- Pricedrop to 149$. Show bundles with God of War, Gran Turismo and Bioshock.
Announce the big guns for 2017:
- Resistance Reboot made by SCE Campbridge.
Killzone engine is in place, they released Heavenly Sword 2 in 2015 so they can do it.
- The Getaway Vita.
They need a subtitute until GTA will happen on the Vita. You have a franchise and Team SOHO at London. Use it. Also I feel they will make a PS4 Getaway game first releasing in 2014/2015, so this should give the team time.
- Uncharted Vita 3 made by SCE Bend.
Nuff said.
- Exclusive Metal Gear Solid for the Vita by Kojima.
The 2nd big 3rd party game.
Gamescom will be a smaller event again to announce the rest of 2017:
- Sly Cooper 5 made by Sanzaru Games.
Exclusive to Vita.
- The next game or new IP from Level-5.
- Puppeteer 3 and possibly a New IP made by SCE Japan for the Vita.
The lineup for 2017 is pretty strong:
Sly Cooper 5, MLB: The Show, Exc. JRPG form L5, New IP by SCE Japan, Puppeteer 3, The Getaway Vita, Resistance Reboot, Exc. MGS by Kojima, Uncharted: Vita 3
With the pricedrop and the lineup I expect them to sell 11 million units more. That's 29 million Vita sold to date at that time.
The last year announcements made for Vita is 2017.
They've launching the next portable in early 2019 so they should focus on that. At E3 they should announce the big guns again:
- God of War Vita 2 made by Bluepoint
- Gravity Rush 3 made by SCE Japan
- Twisted Metal made by a Team with Dave Jaffe.
That pretty long shot, but if a TM game would be on Vita, then he is essential.
- Exclusive Final Fantasy made by Square-Enix.
- Exclusive GTA made by Rockstar.
At Gamescom announce the smaller projects:
- New IP from Idol Minds, after their Ratchet game.
- Ape Escape for the Vita made by SCE Japan.
- Tarsier's next title (Could be the 2nd game form their New IP from 2016 or a New IP)
The lineup for 2018 is more on the shoulders of the 3rd party:
Ape Escape Vita, MLB: The Show, New IP from Idol Minds, Gravity Rush 3, Tarsier New Game 2, Twisted Metal by Jaffe, Exc. GTA by Rockstar, Exc. FF by Square-Enix, God of War Vita 2
These announcements and the games coming out would make Vita keep peaking at 11 million. This way they would reach 40 million units sold.
In 2018 Sony should be working on the new handheld announcements, so no 1st party announcements, I expect 3rd party to take the lead completely. The only announcement should be a pricedrop to 99$ at E3. This would ensure a long life for the Vita, and a strong 10 million sales in 2018, I believe. By the end of 2018 they've sold 50 million Vita, with a strong chance to reach 60 million by the time it's discontinued.
Here is a my plan in an excel sheet:
(Yellow is PS3 port/simultanious release. Green is new IP. Red is 3rd party. Blue is the most important 1st party releases.)
So... is it viable?
