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The 1 billion units estimate is coming from the same marketing department that thought Surface tablets would sell well. They didn't. Microsoft lost 900 million dollars on Surface.

Realistically, including returns, damaged units, and all the other stuff, Microsoft will probably want to make 100 million units lifetime. Of that, at most 90 million will be unit sales, more likely 70 and quite possibly 50. Even if the XB1 were free like the poll suggests, the market for consoles is only about 200 million consumers wordlwide. A free console might triple that but no more.