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Well KI is owned by MS by way of the Rare buy out, so I'd say it's a first party game made by a 2nd/3rd party studio.

MS is likely to keep publishing some 1st party games, but when they see a hit, they'll likely pay to make it exclusive for the long term, as they continue to drain the IP of importance as they did with halo and gears for some people.

As a gears fans, I have every right to say so. I've played enough halo to say so as well, although I hate it with a passion.