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You can easily tell microsoft bad decisions by the increasing number of writeoff the company is taking in order to perserve its crumbling monopoly.

aQuantive $6 billion dollars
Kin 500 million
Surface tablets $900 million
Not even close to break even on Online services (Bing)

Next will be their writeoff of Skype because there will be no way the company will ever see any ROI from an 8 billion dollars spent on this deal for what a is essentially a free piece of software.

In a lot of growth areas where Microsoft shows no monopoly power its being dominated by Google and Apple, couple that with slowing PC sales and slowing government purchases...I see why the stock is down 11%